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Mar 30, 2024

Predicting the NHL's 8 Biggest Nightmare Contracts by 2025

Gazing into our crystal balls about who will win the Stanley Cup in the coming years is forever cloudy, but a key component to doing so is having a healthy salary cap situation. Although most

Gazing into our crystal balls about who will win the Stanley Cup in the coming years is forever cloudy, but a key component to doing so is having a healthy salary cap situation. Although most championship teams recently have been at or well above the cap when it was all said and done, you can't quite get there without financial flexibility.

That's why we're taking a look down the road a bit, past the year 2025 (which still somehow sounds like a science-fiction setting) to see which teams have players on contracts that could cause headaches. We celebrate the players for getting paid and grabbing the bag, but sometimes the bag winds up too heavy for management to handle.

The players we picked out here are chosen based on contract, age, production and the effect that contract could have on future players their teams wish to bring aboard or retain. Obviously, we don't know what the future holds, but right now these contracts look as ominous as storm clouds on the horizon.

The Columbus Blue Jackets wanted defenseman Damon Severson real bad. They wanted him so bad they gave him an eight-year contract after completing a sign-and-trade deal with the New Jersey Devils.

There's something about a team that's fighting to become a contender making a Faustian bargain and not actually getting a discount in the end which, in itself, is the definition of such a pact. The eight-year, $50 million deal Severson made is a juicy one with a $6.25 million cap hit for the Jackets through 2031.

Severson's contract makes him the second highest-paid blue liner in Columbus behind Zach Werenski. If the price for a defenseman that's averaged 22.8 points per season (0.41 points per game) is more than $6 million a year, there are more than a few blueliners out there who wish they could re-negotiate their own deals.

Severson will be 29 this season and while we know a lot of players don't see the end of their contracts on the ice, the fact he'll be 36 when the final year of this contract starts makes it feel a little uncomfortable.

After all, the Jackets will have 2022 first-round picks David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk knocking on the door of the NHL very soon along with 2021 first-round pick Corson Ceulemans as well. If those guys all turn out to be NHL fixtures, that's great, but contract extensions down the road might get awkward, even with a higher salary cap.

When Colton Parayko arrived on the scene in St. Louis, he was a revelation for the Blues.

Having a 6'6" 228-pound defenseman with a shot so hard it made people think about Al MacInnis. His size had those same people wondering if he'd be the next Chris Pronger. That's a heck of an impression.

In his first four seasons, Parayko was able to provide all that and be a positive possession player. He was strong enough in his own end to earn tough assignments and he had all the markings of a cornerstone defenseman.

But ever since the Blues' Stanley Cup season, Parayko's game has been a bit different. He's no longer on the power play and he's used often on the penalty kill. His possession numbers aren't terribly different - although the expected goal numbers are - and his point totals are down.

Steady production is a good thing and for the first three seasons, he showed he could put up 30-35 points in a season. But the past two seasons the points are down due to a lack of power-play time.

He's averaged 0.4 points per game for his career which is fine, it's just not what you ideally want to see from a defenseman you're paying $6.5 million a season to until 2030. Now that he's 30 years old, the prospect of his point totals taking a dramatic rise doesn't seem likely.

When Ryan Strome was with the New York Rangers, he proved himself to be an ideal linemate for Artemi Panarin. Panarin was able to get the best out of Strome, lifting the center to career highs in points (59 during the 2019-20 season) and goals (21 during the 2021-22 campaign).

When Strome hit free agency and was bound for a raise the Rangers couldn't afford, the big question was how he'd handle life away from the Breadman.

After all, Strome struggled early in his career with the Islanders and Oilers. The fifth overall pick from the 2011 draft wasn't looking like a player befitting that pick. When he arrived in Anaheim after signing a five-year, $25 million contract, he was destined to be the guy to help guide Trevor Zegras grow into the NHL and give them scoring depth.

Instead, the Ducks were the worst team in the league and Strome wasn't able to do much to correct that. He was tied for fifth on the team in scoring with Frank Vatrano and he went from 0.74 points per game with the Rangers to 0.5 per game with the Ducks. On top of that, his possession numbers were brutal at 5-on-5.

Better players landing in Anaheim will help pick things up for the Ducks, but after they drafted Leo Carlsson with the No. 2 pick this year, Strome's time as the No. 2 center is running out quickly and he's under contract through 2027. At least that's not too long, but it's still trending in the wrong direction.

Seth Jones was going to get paid no matter what, but the price Chicago paid for him also included multiple first-round picks and a massive contract. In yet another example of a sign-and-trade deal gone haywire, Chicago signed Jones to an eight-year, $76 million contract ($9.5 million cap hit) and the Jackets came away with a pair of first-round picks and not having Jones take up a massive part of the salary cap.

Jones landed in Chicago at a difficult time. The dynasty was over, the Stanley Cup-winning veterans were aging out and he was joining the team right as they decided to rebuild, and his play suffered greatly for it.

Even though he posted 51 points two seasons ago, his minus-37 rating was the worst on the team and his minus-38 last season was also the worst. (Yes, we know plus-minus is also the worst stat). He played the most minutes and saw the most action against him and it showed.

But for $9.5 million a season, the real evaluation of Jones' play begins this season with the arrival of Connor Bedard and how he helps guide Chicago through the rest of this rebuild. As he gets older, the price tag isn't likely to look any better. They just hope that things will be much, much better by the time 2030 rolls around and Jones' contract is up.

Chicago doesn't have any cap issues to worry about for the foreseeable future, but it was an incredibly steep price they paid in picks and money to bring him aboard.

We're going to put an asterisk next to Jonathan Huberdeau's name for the moment.

When he signed his eight-year, $84 million contract with Calgary as part of the blockbuster deal with the Panthers that sent Matthew Tkachuk to South Florida, the change in pace from a Florida team that enjoyed opening up the game and playing offense to Calgary under Darry Sutter was a full 180-degree turn.

Huberdeau's contract has a $10.5 million cap hit which is an impossibly high bar to live up to and he signed that contract after he put up 115 points with the Panthers. Now with Sutter gone and other Flames players seemingly ready to flee Alberta, the pressure is stacked on Huberdeau's shoulders to get back to scoring and helping on goals and to be, at least, a 95-point scorer again.

If there's a bright side here, it's that Huberdeau's underlying numbers last season were very similar to what he had two years ago with the Panthers, but he shot the puck far fewer times, nearly 100 fewer (222-126). If Huberdeau gets a bit more selfish with the puck, perhaps better things will happen. But that's leaving a lot up in the air and now that he's 30 years old, life could get tougher sooner than not.

A $10.5 million cap hit is a hard thing to live up to and the Flames must get it right.

The Lightning signed Erik Cernak to an eight-year, $41.6 million contract extension last summer and the 2023-2024 season kicks off the first year of that with a robust $5.2 million cap hit. Breaking out his offensive numbers to pillory this deal is a fool's errand because that's not why he was extended.

Since 2020-2021, Cernak has the best possession numbers among Lightning defensemen, including Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev and Ryan McDonagh. He also has the second-best expected goals for percentage behind Sergachev according to NaturalStatTrick.com.

From that perspective, it's understandable why they wanted to extend him. On the other hand, the three other defensemen mentioned above were three of his four most common defense partners in the past four years (Ian Cole the fourth). For a cap hit of that size, Cernak has to be capable of being the lead guy on a pairing. Cole was his partner most often last season at 5-on-5, and they performed well together, although Cernak was worse off away from Cole while Cole's numbers were slightly better without Cernak.

These are first-world problems for Cernak and for the Lightning because they've been outstanding and Cernak's possession game as well as his physical play that toes the line of legality now and again are reasons why you keep him.

But Tampa Bay has Sergachev, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Nick Paul and Nikita Kucherov all signed for big money beyond 2025. One of these players is not like the other and even with Cernak having the second-lowest cap hit among that group, it's a hefty cost into the future for a player who's yet to play a fully healthy season.

We love Sean Couturier. He's developed into an incredible two-way forward. He's an elite defensive forward (won the Selke in 2020) and he can score 30-plus goals in a season. That's the kind of player you don't feel bad about paying big money to because they're rarer than rare around the league.

That's what's made Couturier sustaining a herniated disc in his back in February 2022 so hard to see. The eight-year, $62 million extension he signed in August 2021 began for the 2022-2023 season, but the back surgery he underwent in February put him out for the rest of the 2021-22 season and the 2022-23 season.

The Flyers have never been shy about using LTIR to side-step cap problems so that takes care of potential problems for them there. But if Couturier can't come back and play like he did years ago (he's slated to be ready for training camp in September, fingers crossed), his $7.75 million cap hit becomes a really difficult piece of accounting to handle through 2030.

Back injuries are debilitating and even before his back gave him issues, Couturier had a run of bad injury luck that made it seem as if he was cursed (detached rib, hip injury, puck in the face, wrist cut by skate blade, COVID).

We're all rooting for Couturier to come back healthy and to be one of the NHL's best once again, but his contract looms as a major burden if he can't get back to that level of top play.

It is very possible Bo Horvat could be a late bloomer as a goal scorer in the NHL. He's scored 30-plus goals in the past two seasons with Vancouver and the New York Islanders. Two seasons ago, he posted 31 and he had 38 between the Canucks and Long Island.

The Islanders went hard to acquire Horvat last season and sent a 2023 first-round pick, Anthony Beauvillier and prospect Aatu Räty to the Canucks to get him. With that big of a cost, and the eight-year, $68 million extension Lou Lamoriello signed Horvat to after the trade, he's got to be a 30-goal guy every year for a while to justify it.

Throughout his career, Horvat has averaged 48.4 points per season and scores 0.67 points per game for his career. We could go with a scorching hot take based on what he did with the Islanders after the trade (seven goals, nine assists in 30 games along with a goal and an assist in six playoff games) and say outright this contract isn't worth the cost and trouble. Instead, we'll rely on the breadth of games played to do that instead.

What Horvat can be is a consistently a 40-plus point player each season and score between 20-25 goals. That's a solid player that anyone would want in their lineup...just not at the cost of $8.5 million against the cap until 2031 more than likely. A good player with a bad contract is still a good player, they'll just be under a lot more stress and scrutiny because of it.

With the Islanders lacking in immediately helpful prospects and a very veteran team, the pressure to keep up as a 30-plus goal scorer couldn't be higher.